Coding Our Future: Novelists Weigh In

Techies and futurists are not the only ones who like to spin tales about what the future may hold for us. Telling stories about what a world with way more technology might be like is also a favorite occupation of many novelists.

Two of my favorites are The Circle by Dave Eggers and Super Sad True Love Story by Gary Shteyngart. Both of these books raise the issue of transparency vs. privacy in an age of more intrusive technology. Some of their characters embrace the transparency, some are victimized by it. I don’t think either author welcomes it.

apartments

(Lode Van de Velde)

Reading these stories recalls the futurist classic 1984 by George Orwell. Most of us have thought of Big Brother as a government entity. But it could in fact be whoever controls the technology. Or the oppression could come peer-to-peer.

It is interesting that a key aspect of the future lifestyle envisioned by both of these novelists is live streaming from personal devices. And these stories were written well before anyone ever heard of Meercat or Periscope. (Super Sad True Love Story was published in 2010, The Circle in 2013.)

Both are great novels that I highly recommend. Here are short reviews:

The Circle, Dave Eggers

The CircleIf George Orwell had written “1984” 60 years later, who would have been Big Brother? Would it still have been the government (think NSA)? How about the marketers who try to track and predict our behavior? Or would it be a corporate Big Brother?

Dave Eggers is going with the latter. The Circle is the Silicon Valley monolith that consumes all the others. If you get creeped out by seeing the Google car with the camera on top cruising your neighborhood you’re likely to find this a tale of horror.

It’s the story of Mae Holland, a young woman one or two jobs out of college, who scores her dream gig in a cube farm at the Circle. What she finds there is an exaggeration of a couple of trends that have become increasingly prevalent in corporate America in the last few years. One is the need to create data to evaluate job performance. Essentially this involves taking subjective information, translating it into numbers, and then pretending it’s objective. At the Circle, Mae gets a real time rating of 1 to 100 after every transaction, every email, every message. She is also stack ranked with the 11,000 other Circle employees on a participation index. That involves how active she is in off-hours company-sponsored events and activities and how much social messaging she does with her colleagues. That’s the other trend I referred to above, the movement toward obliterating the distinction between your professional and personal life.

One man’s transparency and is another’s invasion of privacy. That is the crux of what this novel is about. The Circle represents a quest for total transparency. I stand with Eggers on the other side of the issue. There is one voice of dissent at the Circle, a shadowy character who gets it on with Mae in a bathroom stall (not transparent). He warns that the completion of the circle will mean the end of humanity. I think that is what Orwell would have said.

Super Sad True Love Story, Gary Shteyngart

Super ssd true love storyThis Super Sad True Love Story involves 39-year old Lenny Abramov, son of Russian Jewish immigrant parents, and Eunice Park, 20-something second generation Korean-American. It takes place in a rapidly deteriorating United States, with a repressive one-party government, kept afloat by Chinese financing. Central Park has been turned into a shanty town for LNWI’s (low net worth individuals).

Shteyngart creates a world of devices and data. A world where you check your credit score on telephone poles. The devices of the time are called apparats and are worn around the neck. These devices churn out data that goes way beyond telling marketers what to sell you. The apparat guides your personal relationships as well. For example, Lenny’s apparat tells him that he does well with women who were abused. In a bar or at a party the device will point out those who fit that description. It will also rate everyone around on parameters like ‘fuckability,’ personality and income. Lenny’s forte is the latter. Eunice gets high grades only in the first of these.

You can find out someone’s body fat or blood pressure with your apparat but intelligence is not a feature considered of much consequence. The transparency has also found its way to fashion. For young women, onion skin pants have replaced jeans.

In courting Eunice, Lenny treats her to a $10 business class ride on the F train. Eunice is shocked to see Lenny actually read a book, not just scan the text for data. Lenny deodorizes his book shelf so as not to offend his lover with the smell of books.

Shteyngart is easy to read. He has a direct style, no heavy descriptions of the environs or re-jiggering of the timelines. There are lots of “is this what we’re coming to?” moments. Followed for me by the thought that I hope I’m not around to see it.

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Birds of the Salt Marsh

ospreyThese photos were taken at the Wetlands Institute in Stone Harbor, N.J. The non-profit Wetlands Institute is an educational and research facility dedicated to the preservation of the salt marsh and coastal ecosystem.

in the wetlandsBirdhouseOne legIn the muck

Osprey nest

You can get a live look at an osprey nest at the Wetlands Institute here.

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Jazz in the Garden, for the 50th Time

Jazz in the Garden

Jazz in the Garden

Newark MuseumA summer series of lunchtime jazz performances on the grounds of the Newark Museum. 2015 is the 50th year of Jazz in the Garden.

Cocomama

Cocomama

Eric Reed

Eric Reed

Josh Evans

David Gibson Quintet with Josh Evans on trumpet

Jazz fans at the museam

the dancers

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Jersey Shore Summer — Greetings From Asbury Park

Asbury tourist info

Asbury Park beach

Asbury Park muralTattoos

Convention Hall

Coppy ocean

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Faces of the Fair

N.J. State Fair/Sussex County Farm and House Show

Sussex County Fairgrounds

Augusta, N.J.

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Coding Our Future: The Industrial Revolution Ends Here

The Industrial Revolution, which most historians date back to the 18th century, had a profound and lasting effect on the way we live. It was a defining stimulant of urbanization, capitalism and consumerism.

It profoundly changed where and how we work. Artisans, craftsmen and growers became factory workers. We left the home, the yard, the garage or shed and made our living in factories, mills or office buildlngs.

auto assembly lineIt ushered in an era of mass production of products by giant organizations. Originally that meant making goods available to a far broader segment of the world’s population at affordable prices.  As the Western world moved toward a more service oriented economy, the same model was followed: massive organizations providing cookie-cutter services.

The producer/provider organizations grew their business by becoming larger yet, merging with or swallowing up competitors. And they grew their profitability by outsourcing, by automating, by using cheaper materials, less expensive labor and generally providing less for more.

There has been a simmering backlash in some quarters. Many have chosen to celebrate the local, the organic, the artisan. The purchase of food is one example, with more and more Americans choosing to buy what they can at local farmers’ markets rather than going to giant chain stores to consume the products of agri-business conglomerates. It’s why coffee drinkers search out the local roaster rather than buying a can of Maxwell House. Why some opt for a growler of local craft beer instead of a six-pack of Bud.

While it was nascent technology that fueled the early Industrial Revolution, it may well be technology that puts an end to the cultural, business and labor environment that the Industrial Revolution created. There are two trends which ultimately may have an equally profound effect on what we consume, how we work and our overall lifestyle. One is the peer-to-peer sharing economy. The other is the DIY maker movement.

Most of us are familiar with some of the early success stories of the sharing or on-demand economy. Uber instead of taxis. Airbnb instead of hotels. Zipcar instead of private car ownership. These services have been wildly successful because of the cost or poor quality or lack of convenience or availability of the products or services they are replacing. There are many others that are not as widely known, services delivered through apps for dog walkers, tutors or grocery deliveries.

Many decades ago the renowned American architect R. Buckminster Fuller, inventor of the geodesic dome, espoused the philosophy that we need to do more with less. By doing so, he believed that there were enough resources in the world for everyone. The shared economy does just that. It utilizes excess capacity, whether that is an unused car seat or bedroom or maybe it is knowledge. The world’s greatest information resource has become Wikipedia, which is put together by volunteers and has wiped out the encyclopedia industry.

Peer to peer shared services fundamentally change the nature of work. What is cut out is the massive organizational provider, replaced instead by an app. NYU professor Arun Sundararajan describes this as a “transition from institutions to communities. What it also means is that people put together work based on their available time, knowledge and resources, providing it directly to the consumer peer outside the boundaries of a full-time job as we know it.”

And while peer-to-peer sharing has the potential to revolutionize the service economy, there are other new technologies, the best known of which is 3-D printing, which could completely disrupt the world of manufacturing.

3-D printer

(Kaboompics_com)

There are some amazing things that have been done with 3-D printers:

Will we reach a point at which there is a 3D printer in every home? It has been suggested that these DIY home manufacturing units could create everything from car parts to hearing aids. And the Chicago example shows that even before that happens most of us may have access to DIY manufacturing through our local public library. What this offers is exactly the opposite of what came out of the Industrial Revolution. It’s local, it’s customizable and it can be done in your home or neighborhood.

Writing in the Guardian, Paul Masur, economics editor of Channel 4 News in the UK, describes this as the era of post-capitalism. (The End of Capitalism Has Begun.) “The coming wave of automation, currently stalled because our social infrastructure cannot bear the consequences, will hugely diminish the amount of work needed – not just to subsist but to provide a decent life for all.”

Some of these visions may be pretty far off, like on-demand driverless cars that eliminate the need to have one in your driveway, or home production units that create your own dental implant. But these are irreversible trends that are going to change the way we live. Maybe as radically as the Industrial Revolution did.

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Jersey Shore Summer – Stone Harbor

Stone Harbor

Stone Harbor is the southern half of the Seven Mile Island that sits between Sea Isle City and Wildwood. No more than three or four blocks at its widest, it is flanked by the ocean on one side and the intercoastal waterway on the other. In addition to the standard Jersey Shore features of beach, ocean, pizza and seafood, Stone Harbor also offers up a healthy dose of nature. There’s the Wetlands Institute, the Bird Sanctuary and Stone Harbor Point, the habitat at the very end of the island.

Surfer beach

81st Street Surfers’ Beach

Wetlands Institute

The Wetlands Institute

Fireworks

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Coding Our Future: Technology and Jobs

Robots are replacing factory workers. Automated operating systems are taking the place of customer service centers. Computers are writing news that used to be composed by journalists. And wearable devices are making diagnostic healthcare workers expendable.

It is easy to come to the conclusion that the advance of technology and the automation that comes with it will soon leave a substantial portion of world’s population without the wherewithal to make a living. But in fact, among the researchers who have studied this issue, few, if any, have found statistical evidence of this.

While there is no question that technology disrupts the job market, the question of whether it creates or destroys more jobs has no clear answer. The Pew Research Center recently posed the question to 1,896 persons who they considered experts. (AI, Robotics and the Future of Jobs). Asked whether technology will displace more jobs than it creates, 48% said yes; 52% said no.

Those supporting the more positive outlook argued that “advances in technology may displace certain types of work, but historically, they have been a net creator of jobs.”

Those who celebrate the advance of technology and its impact on the labor market also look at it from the standpoint of quality of work. Writing in the Harvard Business Review, Liviu Nedelescu, founder and CEO of Avansys Solutions discusses “Why We Should Want Robots to Take Some Jobs.” Nedelscu dismisses “the dominant dismal view that rapid technological innovation has been gobbling up jobs faster than it is creating them.”

Fender

(phaewilk)

“We have for the majority of humanity’s history used humans for menial, robotic, repeatable efficiency-minded tasks,” Nedelscu notes, suggesting instead, “Humans should eventually be left to more or less exclusively deal with open-ended endeavors that generate new organic value (as opposed to efficiency derived value).”

There are also those in North America and Western Europe who see automation as a way of reversing the decades old trend of outsourcing work to those parts of the world with the least expensive labor pool, those places where workers get paid the least. They see automation as a way to bring the work back home.

These arguments are perhaps most attractive when viewed from the position of the relatively comfortable classes in the developed world. I’m not sure we can in fact create work based on “open-ended endeavors” for the millions of factory workers in Asia, fruit pickers in Central America or outsourced office workers in India.

What happens to persons who don’t have access to the education that enables them to thrive amidst the new opportunities that automation creates. Even in the U.S. there are those who don’t get the education necessary to enable them to aspire to something more than unskilled labor.

Afternoon lunch

(Peter Griffin)

If one robot can replace 100 factory workers in China and 50 of these robots can be managed by one guy sitting at a laptop in the U.S., we have indeed brought jobs home, but I’m not sure what we have achieved.

(See also Coding Our Future: What Becomes of Work?)

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Jersey Shore Summer – The Boardwalk

Morey's PierWildwood

Bengee riders

Boardwalk dudesTattoo convention

Ocean City

Ocean City boardwalkSwings at Castaway Cove

Uptown String Band

Avalon

Avalon boardwalk

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Coding Our Future: What Becomes of Work?

Beginning in 1811 a group of English textile workers, originally based in Nottingham, rioted and destroyed machinery in protest of the textile industry’s adaption of new technology that threatened to replace skilled artisans with low wage labor. They were called the Luddites and to this day that is a name that is used to describe folks who resist change and progress. They also ushered in an ongoing era of distrust of technology by workers.

Mill workers on strikeA century later the same issues in the textile industry played a large role in the development of the U.S. labor movement. In 1913, 25,000 silk workers went on strike in Paterson, N.J. Among the reasons for the strike were technological advances that improved production, reduced the labor requirement and replaced skilled with unskilled labor.

Now, another century later, and labor is equally suspicious of the growth of technology. Many foresee a march of the robots that will forever change the nature of work,

It is widely expected that most manufacturing will ultimately be done by robots. A group of authors writing in the Harvard Business Review predict that by 2020 the industrial robot population will double to 4 million (The Age of Smart, Safe, Cheap Robots is Already Here).

The drive to take manufacturing out of human hands is all about economics. Most large scale manufacturing is done by large public corporations. Large public corporations are focused on maximizing value for their shareholders. That means maximizing profitability. So vast numbers of manufacturing jobs have long since fled developed areas like North America and Western Europe. And now robots offer a solution that is even cheaper that the miniscule wages paid in places like Bangladesh or Guatemala.

Robot at sewing machine

(Lynn Greyling)

Most modern electronics are manufactured in China. This is not because of skilled workmanship. The Chinese company Foxconn is one such manufacturer. It is known for two things. One is that it manufactures most Apple products. The other is the number of suicides among workers at its plants. Foxconn expects to solve that problem by automating 70% of its assembly work in the next three years.

Presumably, someone will have to be employed to build the industrial robots. And as demand increases the robot makers will no doubt outsource this work to the most desparate labor pools around the world. That is, of course, until they come up with robots to make the other robots.

Russian office

(tpsdave)

The march of the robots is not limited to the factory floor. Cube farms are equally susceptible. For quite a while now we have seen how companies have sought to cut the human touch out of what should be the most human of jobs, customer service. Initially the auto-attendant would simply replace the receptionist by routing callers to the appropriate person or department. But now if you call your bank, utility, phone or cable company, you’ll find that every effort has been made to avoid having someone actually talk to you. If you make it through the maze of menu options you enter the twilight zone of being on hold while a recorded message tells you every 30 seconds how “your call is important to us.” Right.

The problem of having to talk to annoying marketers making cold calls has been replaced by the even more annoying robocall. Honestly, does anyone ever buy anything when a robot cold calls you at home or on your mobile multiple times a day? One would expect Washington to do something about this invasion of privacy, except for the fact that when election time rolls around, guess who’s hiring these robots.

The Japanese have taken robo-service a step further. The Henn na Hotel in Sasebo has empoyed robots as receptionist, concierge and porter (Robots Do Check-In and Check-Out at Cost-Cutting Japan Hotel.) Wonder if you can go the front desk and ask the “female humanoid with blinking lashes” for a toothbrush if you forgot to pack one?

On demand ride sharing apps like Uber or Lyft have been widely denounced by taxi and limo drivers for threatening their jobs. It is not clear whether these technology-based services have created and destroyed more jobs. But the endgame for the Ubers of the future will be to provide transportation in driverless cars. No more drivers, just the app.

With customer services reps, call center and help desk staffers on the way out, the robots will be casting a glance higher up the ladder. In last week’s post I mentioned a company called Narrative Science that produces robotic journalism. As if it wasn’t tough enough to find an entry-level journalist job. But many other classes of professionals may soon be casting a wary eye to a new generation of apps.

Software has long since cut into the legion of tax preparers. But thanks to a voluminous set of confusing rules in the U.S., many accountants are still gainfully employed figuring out our taxes. Surely the technology exits that would enable the IRS to calculate our taxes for us based on the information they already get from us with the taxpayer only needing to fill out a simple form with additional deductions and any non-reported income he or she chooses to report. Guess the feds would rather spend their money on spy tech.

The medical or dental check-up might become a thing of the past. A world in which wearable devices measure bodily functions is already within reach and the next logical step is for those devices to suggest remedies and perhaps even prescribe medications. I have even heard it suggested that implants can identify dental issues and smart diapers can monitor infants’ health. And do we really need multiple consultations with lawyers rather than smart apps to create wills, finalize divorces and complete real estate transactions?

Imagine the impact on the economy if there is not enough work for the hordes of doctors and lawyers our higher education system churns out. How many lab and legal assistants, collection agents and insurers lose their jobs? And what do we do with all the suburban office buildings and downtown storefront offices?

Will there be nothing left but to be a cop or a coder?

Not everyone thinks this will be a problem. Many experts believe technology creates as many jobs as it displaces and some others welcome the changes in work that the march of the robots will bring about. In next week’s post I’ll take a look at why some think we should embrace these changes (instead of acting like Luddites).

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